Concept

A system of factors (indices and indicators) and a new method of quantitative and qualitative evaluation are developed. This system, named “Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix” (SDGM) and data presented by reliable international organizations culminated in a Global Simulation regarding quality of life and security of the world population. Specifically, this study focuses on analysis of the Systematic Regularity of World Conflicts over the Course of Time. A prognosis is detailed of the next world conflict, labeled the "Conflict of XXI Century”, and an analysis is provided of its nature and main characteristics; duration, main phases of the conflict and intensity. This prognosis details a set of basic global threats that spawn this conflict. Using cluster analysis, its influence on different countries of the world is accurately defined. These results were obtained by applying the capabilities of the world data centers network as a tool for providing a variety of scientific interdisciplinary data.

We will consider the concept of “sustainable development” based on the theory of noosphere created by Vladimir Vernadsky. In the middle of last century in his work (Vernadsky, 1944) he declared that the Homo sapiens with his mind and activities began strongly influence the natural development of the environment or biosphere. The theory and practice has confirmed that after several decades the noosphere doctrine proves to be a necessary platform for the development of the “triune” concept of sustainable ecological, social and economic development. In 1996 the United Nations formulated this concept in the following way: “System coordination of economic, ecological and human development in such a way that from one generation to the other the quality and safety of life should not decrease, the environmental conditions should not worsen and the social progress should meet the needs of every person”.

This concept was generalized by a number of international organizations, among them Rome Club, International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IASA), Institute for System Research (USSR), International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Studies. The problems of environment and sustainable development were discussed at the UN conferences and summits, (UN Summit, Rio de Janeiro, 1992), (UN Summit, Johannesburg, 2002).  Thus, the new concept has united the three main components of the sustainable development: economic, ecological and social. It is recommended to carry out «Transition from One-Dimensional Development to its Harmonization with Respect to Three constituents: {Economic; Ecological; Social/Institutional}. Thereby the purpose of this research is working out a sustainable development measuring system based on the use of interdisciplinary data characterizing each of its three dimensions. By using this measuring system which we call Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) we carry out global simulation of sustainable development in the context of quality of life and security of population.

Also we analyze the impact of the totality of global threats on this development. The list of ten most essential global threats to the future of mankind has been selected. Then we have defined the summarized impact of the totality of examined ten global threats on different countries grounded on cluster analysis method with the purpose of selecting groups of the countries with "close" performances of summarized threats. On the basis of usage of Minkovsky type metric the foresight of the future global conflicting has been executed. The set of mathematical models and methods created by company allows to develop recommendations regarding the ways of improving the standards of quality and safety of life in particular countries and regions of the world by the global computer simulation of sustainable development process and human security analysis.